| Rank | State | Implied probability (%) | American (Moneyline) Odds | Reported Fireball Sightings (past 5 years) | January Air Pollution (PM2.5) | Average January Humidity (%) | Average January Cloud Cover (%) | Estimated Artificial Night-Sky Brightness (statewide, mcd/m²) | Estimated Dark-Sky Coverage (Bortle 1–3, % of land area) | Average Meteor Radiant Height (degrees above horizon) | Moon Height After Moonrise (° above horizon) | Avg. Elevation (ft) | Average Fully Dark Night Hours (January 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaska | 27.42 | 265 | 272 | 14.05 | 62.58 | 52.49 | 0.01 | 99.22 | 35.04 | 10.64 | 1900 | 11.96 |
| 2 | Colorado | 25.85 | 287 | 2290 | 6.48 | 72.48 | 47.94 | 0.12 | 93.52 | 28.95 | 20.95 | 6800 | 11.07 |
| 3 | Wyoming | 24.55 | 307 | 235 | 3.13 | 81.78 | 63.9 | 0.03 | 98.72 | 30.27 | 19.64 | 6700 | 11.21 |
| 4 | Montana | 24.02 | 316 | 647 | 7.02 | 68.87 | 60.53 | 0.03 | 98.54 | 31.28 | 17.99 | 3400 | 11.36 |
| 5 | New Mexico | 23.79 | 320 | 715 | 5.44 | 64.36 | 48.45 | 0.09 | 94.76 | 25.55 | 22.31 | 5700 | 10.91 |
| 6 | Nevada | 22.73 | 340 | 773 | 5.9 | 73.08 | 59.03 | 0.07 | 96.42 | 30.35 | 21.2 | 5500 | 11.04 |
| 7 | Maine | 21.8 | 359 | 936 | 5.01 | 72.97 | 59.86 | 0.1 | 94.14 | 35.79 | 18.84 | 600 | 11.28 |
| 8 | California | 20.63 | 385 | 9340 | 7.42 | 75.63 | 60.19 | 0.59 | 79.13 | 27.36 | 21.93 | 2900 | 10.96 |
| 9 | Arizona | 20.16 | 396 | 2321 | 10.79 | 56.21 | 46.53 | 0.16 | 92.9 | 21.79 | 22.64 | 4100 | 10.87 |
| 10 | Utah | 19.48 | 413 | 964 | 7.83 | 76.79 | 68.64 | 0.08 | 95.4 | 26.06 | 20.6 | 6100 | 11.11 |
| 11 | New Hampshire | 18.86 | 430 | 767 | 4.38 | 73.83 | 66.18 | 0.33 | 79.53 | 33.82 | 19.31 | 1000 | 11.24 |
| 12 | South Dakota | 18.09 | 453 | 260 | 4.71 | 85.45 | 58.75 | 0.06 | 96.98 | 27.52 | 19.03 | 2200 | 11.27 |
| 13 | North Dakota | 17.6 | 468 | 189 | 5.35 | 77.31 | 71.58 | 0.4 | 84.79 | 29.49 | 17.7 | 1900 | 11.39 |
| 14 | Vermont | 16.77 | 496 | 482 | 5.14 | 81.58 | 78.96 | 0.09 | 95.84 | 33.55 | 19.07 | 1000 | 11.26 |
| 15 | Virginia | 16.5 | 506 | 2804 | 6.12 | 64.43 | 56.63 | 0.68 | 66.11 | 26.42 | 21.34 | 950 | 11.03 |
| 16 | Nebraska | 16.46 | 507 | 399 | 7.14 | 80.85 | 56.54 | 0.11 | 94.06 | 25.96 | 20.21 | 2600 | 11.15 |
| 17 | Minnesota | 16.11 | 520 | 1614 | 7.48 | 78.35 | 75.99 | 0.25 | 85.03 | 31.28 | 18.44 | 1200 | 11.32 |
| 18 | Texas | 15.92 | 528 | 6034 | 7.67 | 67.58 | 46.39 | 0.57 | 75.0 | 19.19 | 23.36 | 1700 | 10.77 |
| 18 | Oregon | 15.92 | 528 | 1649 | 6.22 | 86.79 | 93.81 | 0.08 | 95.27 | 31.58 | 18.97 | 3300 | 11.27 |
| 20 | Washington | 15.36 | 551 | 2485 | 7.39 | 85.69 | 90.08 | 0.27 | 87.21 | 33.63 | 17.81 | 1700 | 11.38 |
| 21 | Oklahoma | 15.11 | 562 | 1341 | 6.99 | 69.94 | 50.72 | 0.27 | 82.75 | 22.8 | 22.08 | 1300 | 10.94 |
| 22 | Wisconsin | 14.83 | 574 | 2128 | 7.51 | 79.72 | 75.02 | 0.36 | 72.54 | 32.67 | 19.02 | 1050 | 11.27 |
| 23 | Kansas | 14.63 | 584 | 888 | 6.77 | 81.25 | 59.81 | 0.13 | 92.87 | 24.99 | 21.12 | 2000 | 11.05 |
| 24 | Idaho | 14.37 | 596 | 783 | 13.56 | 80.37 | 79.36 | 0.05 | 97.14 | 27.48 | 19.08 | 5000 | 11.26 |
| 25 | Arkansas | 14.11 | 609 | 916 | 6.55 | 73.61 | 49.05 | 0.27 | 81.69 | 24.96 | 22.25 | 650 | 10.92 |
| 26 | New York | 14.09 | 610 | 3032 | 6.39 | 75.35 | 83.0 | 0.64 | 69.3 | 31.13 | 19.79 | 1000 | 11.19 |
| 27 | North Carolina | 13.95 | 617 | 3513 | 5.9 | 65.17 | 51.44 | 0.75 | 41.06 | 24.01 | 22.02 | 700 | 10.95 |
| 28 | Missouri | 13.68 | 631 | 1548 | 6.33 | 75.04 | 70.53 | 0.33 | 81.68 | 27.41 | 21.13 | 800 | 11.05 |
| 29 | Pennsylvania | 13.46 | 643 | 3798 | 7.73 | 70.69 | 72.03 | 0.74 | 50.88 | 28.86 | 20.37 | 1100 | 11.13 |
| 30 | Iowa | 13.0 | 669 | 903 | 7.56 | 83.27 | 69.0 | 0.25 | 82.75 | 29.27 | 19.88 | 1100 | 11.18 |
| 31 | Massachusetts | 12.77 | 683 | 2434 | 5.49 | 71.08 | 61.56 | 1.31 | 25.61 | 33.09 | 19.75 | 500 | 11.19 |
| 32 | Alabama | 12.75 | 685 | 1193 | 5.81 | 70.29 | 53.96 | 0.47 | 62.37 | 26.74 | 22.87 | 500 | 10.84 |
| 33 | Hawaii | 12.52 | 699 | 372 | 3.47 | 74.76 | 33.97 | 0.24 | 90.05 | 11.88 | 25.65 | 3030 | 10.39 |
| 34 | Mississippi | 12.05 | 730 | 511 | 6.8 | 71.09 | 52.42 | 0.34 | 74.05 | 24.98 | 22.89 | 300 | 10.84 |
| 35 | West Virginia | 11.88 | 742 | 626 | 6.54 | 74.7 | 78.47 | 0.26 | 76.04 | 25.37 | 21.11 | 1500 | 11.05 |
| 36 | Tennessee | 11.83 | 745 | 1912 | 6.06 | 73.93 | 63.76 | 0.68 | 53.38 | 28.81 | 22.0 | 900 | 10.95 |
| 37 | Connecticut | 10.81 | 825 | 1369 | 5.8 | 69.07 | 63.28 | 1.11 | 8.69 | 32.0 | 20.0 | 500 | 11.17 |
| 38 | Georgia | 10.32 | 869 | 2090 | 7.23 | 67.4 | 53.69 | 0.77 | 59.07 | 20.0 | 22.81 | 600 | 10.85 |
| 39 | Illinois | 10.01 | 899 | 2477 | 7.3 | 79.54 | 76.52 | 0.99 | 61.08 | 30.53 | 20.48 | 600 | 11.12 |
| 40 | South Carolina | 9.54 | 948 | 1376 | 6.21 | 66.7 | 54.77 | 0.69 | 34.45 | 22.11 | 22.57 | 350 | 10.88 |
| 41 | Kentucky | 9.46 | 957 | 1281 | 6.01 | 76.25 | 76.32 | 0.43 | 64.04 | 22.77 | 21.38 | 750 | 11.02 |
| 42 | Michigan | 8.88 | 1026 | 2671 | 8.96 | 82.07 | 90.19 | 0.54 | 67.99 | 26.79 | 19.36 | 900 | 11.23 |
| 43 | Louisiana | 8.39 | 1092 | 707 | 7.59 | 71.55 | 49.96 | 0.7 | 59.39 | 22.58 | 23.32 | 100 | 10.78 |
| 44 | Rhode Island | 8.17 | 1124 | 392 | 4.89 | 71.05 | 61.73 | 1.71 | 2.34 | 32.75 | 19.96 | 200 | 11.17 |
| 45 | Maryland | 7.09 | 1310 | 1739 | 5.89 | 71.05 | 62.38 | 1.97 | 22.91 | 28.07 | 20.89 | 350 | 11.07 |
| 46 | Ohio | 6.51 | 1436 | 3585 | 7.51 | 77.15 | 81.96 | 1.16 | 26.26 | 25.7 | 20.45 | 850 | 11.12 |
| 47 | Indiana | 5.8 | 1624 | 1934 | 7.57 | 78.48 | 80.44 | 0.78 | 35.48 | 23.48 | 20.64 | 700 | 11.1 |
| 48 | New Jersey | 5.51 | 1714 | 1937 | 6.03 | 68.93 | 61.82 | 2.53 | 0.9 | 30.17 | 20.46 | 250 | 11.12 |
| 49 | Delaware | 5.48 | 1725 | 328 | 7.1 | 69.73 | 60.58 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 28.97 | 20.8 | 60 | 11.08 |
| 50 | Florida | 4.03 | 2381 | 5751 | 7.1 | 75.93 | 72.66 | 1.34 | 52.04 | 17.25 | 24.14 | 100 | 10.65 |
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