With Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest returning on July 4, Action Network looked at what the latest published odds say about Joey Chestnut’s chances of winning and whether he can push his famous 76-hot-dog record even further.
The timing makes the contest a natural holiday-weekend sports story, landing around Independence Day and a busy summer sports calendar. The tables below convert the key prices into moneyline odds and implied probability.
Chestnut is priced as the clear favorite to win, but the odds of a true record-breaking total are far longer.
Use the tabs below to see how the odds translate into moneyline and implied probability. In the first table, implied probability means the chance of each competitor winning. In the record table, it means the chance of Chestnut reaching each hot dog total.
| Rank | Competitor | Fractional odds | Moneyline | Chance of winning (implied probability) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joey ChestnutHeavy favorite | 1/25 | -2500 | 96.2% |
| 2 | Patrick BertolettiNearest named challenger | 12/1 | +1200 | 7.7% |
| 3 | James WebbLeading outsider | 20/1 | +2000 | 4.8% |
| 4 | Geoffrey EsperLong-shot contender | 25/1 | +2500 | 3.8% |
| 5 | Nick WehryLong-shot contender | 33/1 | +3300 | 2.9% |
| 6 | George ChigerLong-shot contender | 50/1 | +5000 | 2.0% |
Table includes leading contenders with published outright odds, not the full confirmed field. In this table, implied probability shows each competitor’s chance of winning as suggested by the odds. It is not adjusted for bookmaker margin.
| Milestone | What it means | Moneyline | Chance of reaching total (implied probability) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70+ hot dogsNear recent winning level | Around his 2025 winning range | -127 | 56.0% |
| 72+ hot dogsClears 70 again | Clears 70 again | +144 | 41.0% |
| 74+ hot dogsRecord-adjacent | Within two of his record | +400 | 20.0% |
| 76+ hot dogsTie or beat | Ties or beats his Nathan’s record | +488 | 17.0% |
| 78+ hot dogsClear record break | Clearly beats his Nathan’s record | +1150 | 8.0% |
| 80+ hot dogsHistoric territory | Breaks record by four or more | +2400 | 4.0% |
| 82+ hot dogsExtreme long shot | Historic long-shot total | +4900 | 2.0% |
In this table, implied probability shows Chestnut’s chance of reaching each listed hot dog total. The 76+ line would tie or beat his Nathan’s record. For a clear record-breaking total, 78+ is the cleaner benchmark.
Action Network odds experts created these tables by reviewing the latest market pricing for each entry, including Kalshi markets, then converting the prices into moneyline odds and implied probability.
The final numbers give more weight to where active markets are pricing each outcome, with a smaller weight given to wider public perception and discussion around the contest.