98.0%
Sadie Sink Leads the Current Market
Sink leads the workbook snapshot, just ahead of Jacob Elordi at 96.0%. Hugh Jackman is next at 43.0%.
Key Findings
The Biggest Signals in the X-Men Casting Conversation
The market has clear favorites, but the biggest odds moves did not always match the actors drawing the most new attention.
+72.0 pts
Jacob Elordi Made the Biggest Market Jump
Elordi climbed from a 24.0% pre-release average to 96.0% today, the biggest jump of any actor with comparable data.
+81.0%
Tye Sheridan Led the Wikipedia Surge
His Wikipedia views rose from 4,985 to 9,022 across the comparison windows. No pre-release Kalshi data exists for him, so no odds change is reported.
-13.8 pts / +44.2%
Glen Powell Shows the Two Signals Can Diverge
Powell posted one of the biggest odds drops even as his Wikipedia interest rose sharply.
01 · Casting Odds
Who Will Be Cast in X-Men? Current Casting Odds
Kalshi prices are market-implied probabilities that each actor will be cast, not Action Network forecasts.
Market OddsSource: Kalshi
Workbook Snapshot: The table uses the fixed values supplied for this analysis; the live graphic above can keep moving.
Sadie Sink and Jacob Elordi sit in a tier of their own, both above 95%. The next group is tight: Hugh Jackman, Ayo Edebiri, Jesse Plemons, and Patrick Stewart all land between 35% and 43%.
02 · Market Movers
How X-Men Casting Odds Have Moved Since Spider-Man
Each actor's average Kalshi probability from July 28-30, 2026, the three days before release, compared with their current casting odds.
Not ranked: Tye Sheridan did not have comparable Kalshi market data from before the release, so a change could not be calculated.
Jacob Elordi leads with a 72.0-point climb, from 24.0% to 96.0%. Denzel Washington is up 18.8 points on partial before-release data. Hugh Jackman (-17.0), Evan Peters (-15.0), and Glen Powell (-13.8) fell furthest.
03 · Wikipedia Interest
Which X-Men Contenders Gained the Most Wikipedia Interest?
Wikipedia pageviews offer a different signal: which contenders audiences were actually looking up over the same period.
Tye Sheridan led with an 81.0% jump, ahead of Sadie Sink (63.2%) and Sophie Turner (61.2%). Sink added by far the most raw views: 121,528.
04 · What It Means
What the Market and Wikipedia Data Tell Us
Market Expectations and Audience Attention Did Not Move in Lockstep
An actor can gain attention while losing ground in the market, or move sharply in the market without a matching jump in interest.
Kalshi MovementHow casting expectations moved.
Wikipedia InterestHow audience attention moved.
Glen Powell
Clearest DivergenceKalshi Movement-13.8 pts
-80 pts0+80 pts
Wikipedia Interest+44.2%
0%50%100%
Jacob Elordi
Market-Led MoveKalshi Movement+72.0 pts
-80 pts0+80 pts
Wikipedia Interest+13.8%
0%50%100%
Sadie Sink
Attention-Led MoveKalshi Movement+5.7 pts
-80 pts0+80 pts
Wikipedia Interest+63.2%
0%50%100%
The Takeaway
Market odds measure expectations. Wikipedia views measure attention. Together they give a fuller picture; neither replaces the other.
05 · Methodology
Methodology
Current X-Men Casting Odds
The current odds table uses the latest market probabilities captured in the supplied workbook. The live graphic can keep moving as trading continues. These are market expectations, not Action Network predictions.
Kalshi Movement Since Spider-Man
We compared each actor's average Kalshi probability from July 28-30, 2026, the three days before release, with their current odds in the workbook snapshot. Daily prices use the final trade where available, otherwise the closing YES bid-ask midpoint or the single quoted side. Partial before-period coverage is noted in the analysis. Tye Sheridan had no comparable pre-release data, so no change is reported.
Wikipedia Interest
We compared each actor's English-language Wikipedia pageviews from July 28-30 with August 1-3. “Change in Views” is the raw difference; “Wikipedia Interest Change” is the percentage move. Pageviews measure attention, not support or casting likelihood.
Important Interpretation Note
This is an observational analysis. Moves around the release of Spider-Man: Brand New Day are not necessarily caused by the film; other news, rumors, or announcements can also move pricing and interest.
Sources: Action Network analysis of the supplied Kalshi market and Wikipedia pageview data. The supplied workbook is the source of truth for all fixed figures.
Full Data and Analysis
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Every ranking, market snapshot, and pageview series behind this study, available to explore.